🔍 Read the full analysis: Singapore’s Layoff Data Puts AI Anxiety Among Graduates In Perspective on ThorstenMeyerAI.com
Get business pricing on tech for your team
- Business-only prices and quantity discounts
- Tax-exempt purchasing
- Multiple users, one account, clear invoices
TL;DR
Singapore reported 4,800 retrenchments in the third quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly total since late 2020, while employment still grew. The available evidence points mainly to business reorganisation; graduates appear to face slower hiring and fewer permanent roles, rather than widespread layoffs attributed to AI.
Singapore recorded 4,800 retrenchments in the third quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly count since the end of 2020, according to preliminary figures released by the Ministry of Manpower on October 30. The increase has renewed concern about AI and job security, but the available data points chiefly to business reorganisation, while graduates are facing a tougher route into permanent work rather than a surge in layoffs.
Retrenchments rose from 4,620 in the second quarter and 3,670 in the third quarter of 2025. The last higher quarterly total was 5,640 in the fourth quarter of 2020, during the pandemic. The retrenchment rate, which measures layoffs per 1,000 employees, remained at 2.0. The third-quarter release is preliminary; the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) plans to publish fuller detail in mid-December.
About 4,000 of the third-quarter retrenchments were in services, with 700 in manufacturing and 100 in construction. MOM said layoffs remained elevated in selected outward-oriented sectors, including information and communications, financial services and manufacturing, and that business reorganisation was the main driver. The agency’s layoff statistics do not identify AI as a separate cause.
Other indicators show a labour market with mixed signals, not a broad contraction. Total employment grew by 27,700 in the quarter, compared with 11,400 in the previous quarter, and the overall unemployment rate was 2.0% in September. At the same time, the resident unemployment rate edged up to 3.0%, and the citizen rate to 3.1%. MOM said higher retrenchments and firms’ increased expectations of further layoffs point to weaknesses in parts of the market that need monitoring.
Infographic 01 · The numbers
Singapore's layoffs climb to a near six-year high
Retrenchments have risen in each of the last five quarters while employment kept growing. The official reason is restructuring.
Retrenchments per quarter
Number of employees laid off · selected quarters · rounded to the nearest 10
3Q 2026 by sector
Main driver: business reorganisation · elevated in information and communications, financial services, manufacturing
Mixed signals for the next quarter
Share of firms, August → September 2026
- Expect to hire in the next 3 months30.5% → 42.3%
- Expect to raise wages16.9% → 19.9%
- Expect to retrench2.8% → 3.1%MOM: “emerging weaknesses … that warrant close monitoring”
The economy grew 5.9% year on year in 2Q 2026 (MTI). Rising layoffs in a growing economy point to restructuring rather than a collapse in demand. The 3Q figures are preliminary; the full report follows in mid-December 2026.
Sources: MOM Labour Market Advance Release 3Q 2026, 30 Oct 2026; MOM Labour Market Report 2Q 2026, 21 Sep 2026; MOM Labour Market Report 1Q 2021 (4Q 2020 figure).
Powered by Thorsten Meyer AI
Layoffs and the Graduate Job Squeeze
The figures matter because a headline increase in layoffs can blur two distinct pressures: established workers losing jobs and new entrants finding fewer openings. MOM’s second-quarter data offers a clearer picture of who was affected: 3,950 of 4,620 retrenched workers were professionals, managers, executives or technicians, about 85%. Workers under 30 had the lowest retrenchment rate of any age group in that quarter. The figures do not show young graduates being laid off in large numbers.
Graduates, however, have reason to be concerned about entry-level opportunities. Across Singapore’s six public universities, 83.4% of job-seeking graduates from 2025 had found work within six months, down from 87.1%. The share in full-time permanent jobs fell to 74.4% from 79.4%; arts, design and media graduates recorded a 50% employment rate. These outcomes suggest a slower and less secure start to working life, not evidence that AI caused the changes.
The distinction affects how employers and policymakers might respond. Layoffs linked to restructuring can call for support for displaced workers and retraining, while weaker graduate hiring raises questions about internships, entry-level roles and the skills employers seek. Treating both as one AI-driven jobs crisis risks misreading the current evidence and the needs of different groups.
Products Worth Considering
Apple Watch Ultra 4 GPS + Cellular 49mm Smartwatch
Logitech MX Brio Ultra HD 4K Webcam, Graphite
Samsung 27-inch Odyssey QD-OLED G8 4K 240Hz Gaming Monitor
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
What the Available Data Shows
The comparison between rising retrenchments and continued employment growth is central to understanding the report. Singapore’s second-quarter economy grew 5.9% year on year, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, while employment also expanded in the third quarter. Growth does not rule out job losses: companies can add workers in some areas while reorganising or reducing roles in others. MOM has described business reorganisation as the leading reason for the latest layoffs.
Direct evidence on AI-related job cuts is limited but does not support claims of mass displacement. In an April survey, 6.2% of firms that had adopted AI said they had cut headcount after adopting it. The survey result is a reported share of AI adopters, not a count of all layoffs and not proof that AI had no effect on other jobs. MOM’s retrenchment categories do not include an AI-specific box, making it difficult to assign a precise share of layoffs to the technology.
The regional picture is also uneven. The International Labour Organization estimates that about 80 million workers in Southeast Asia are in jobs with some exposure to generative AI, but says it has seen no evidence so far of large-scale job losses. It has reported that youth employment in highly exposed jobs fell faster than overall employment in the Philippines and Thailand. Exposure describes the potential for work to change; it does not establish that a job has already been eliminated.
What the Preliminary Figures Cannot Say
The third-quarter figures are preliminary, and the ministry has not yet released the full breakdown by sector, reason for retrenchment and workers’ subsequent re-entry into employment. That detail is expected in mid-December. Until then, the latest figures establish the size of the increase but provide less information about who was laid off and what happened afterward.
It is also not possible to calculate from the available statistics how many retrenchments were caused by AI. The official data does not classify layoffs by AI use, and the April survey covers firms that adopted AI rather than every employer or every job loss. The reported graduate outcomes show weaker employment and permanent-job rates, but do not establish that AI caused the decline.
More broadly, rising retrenchments alongside employment growth do not reveal whether displaced workers are finding new jobs quickly, whether vacancies match their experience, or how long graduate job searches are taking. Those questions require more detailed results and follow-up data.
December Data and Hiring Plans
MOM is expected to publish its full third-quarter labour-market report in mid-December, including further sector detail and information on re-entry into employment. That release should provide a clearer account of which industries drove the increase and how quickly retrenched workers returned to work.
Hiring plans will also be worth watching. The share of firms expecting to hire in the next three months rose from 30.5% in August to 42.3% in September, while the share expecting to retrench increased from 2.8% to 3.1%. Those are employer expectations, not confirmed future hiring or layoffs. Subsequent labour-market releases can show whether the hiring outlook translates into jobs, particularly for graduates seeking permanent roles.
For now, the confirmed picture is a rise in layoffs tied mainly to reported reorganisation, alongside continued employment growth and weaker graduate outcomes. Further evidence will be needed to determine how much AI is changing hiring and job losses in Singapore.
Key Questions
How many retrenchments did Singapore report in the third quarter of 2026?
Singapore recorded 4,800 retrenchments, according to preliminary Ministry of Manpower figures released October 30. The total was up from 4,620 in the second quarter.
Does the data show that AI caused the increase in layoffs?
No. MOM said business reorganisation was the main driver, and its retrenchment statistics do not have a separate AI category. The available figures do not establish how many, if any, of the quarter’s layoffs were caused by AI.
Are young workers being laid off at the highest rate?
No. In the second-quarter data, workers under 30 had the lowest retrenchment rate of any age group. The graduate concern in the reported figures is weaker employment and fewer full-time permanent jobs, rather than a high rate of layoffs among young workers.
When will more detailed third-quarter figures be available?
MOM has said the full report, with additional sector detail and re-entry information, is expected in mid-December 2026. The October 30 release was preliminary.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
