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A new decision framework called Outcome-First has been introduced to help organizations determine whether to keep, change, or terminate ongoing projects based solely on their current outcomes. This approach aims to address the common problem of portfolio bloat caused by continued investment in underperforming initiatives, regardless of past effort or attachment.

Outcome-First is a small, open-source framework that assesses the worth of ongoing initiatives by asking a single question: are the current outcomes worth the ongoing cost? It produces three verdicts: keep, change, or kill. The framework is built around the ‘Worth Filter,’ which prioritizes future outcomes over past investments, encouraging organizations to prune projects that no longer justify their costs.

Designed to be provider-agnostic and local-first, Outcome-First runs on owned compute and is licensed under AGPL-3.0, ensuring openness and transparency. It aims to close the decision loop in portfolio management, offering a disciplined way to routinely evaluate and eliminate non-performing initiatives, thereby freeing capacity for new or more valuable work.

Why Outcome-First Transforms Portfolio Management

This framework matters because it addresses a core challenge in managing complex portfolios: the tendency to keep underperforming projects alive due to emotional, cognitive, or sunk cost biases. By focusing solely on current outcomes, it promotes more objective decision-making, reducing waste and increasing organizational agility. Implementing Outcome-First can lead to more efficient use of resources and better strategic alignment, especially in environments where portfolio bloat hampers innovation and responsiveness.

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The Need for Better Portfolio Pruning Methods

Organizations often struggle with the long tail of ongoing initiatives that neither succeed nor are actively terminated. These projects consume attention, capital, and focus, yet their costs are rarely itemized. Traditional decision-making often relies on backward-looking metrics like invested effort or past costs, which bias toward continuation. Outcome-First introduces a forward-looking approach, reframing the decision to continue or stop based on current results, not past effort.

“The hardest decision in any portfolio isn’t what to start. It’s what to stop. Outcome-First is built to make that decision clearer and more objective.”

— Thorsten Meyer, creator of Outcome-First

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Uncertainties in Applying Outcome-First Framework

It is not yet clear how organizations will measure and verify outcomes objectively, especially for slow-start or long-term initiatives. There is also concern that the framework’s bias toward killing could lead to premature termination of projects that require more time to mature. Additionally, the framework relies on honest assessment; emotional or political factors may still influence decisions despite the structured approach.

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Next Steps for Adoption and Testing

Organizations interested in Outcome-First are expected to pilot the framework within their portfolios to evaluate its effectiveness. Further development may include refining outcome metrics and integrating the framework into existing decision processes. As adoption grows, case studies will emerge to demonstrate its impact on portfolio health and organizational agility.

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Key Questions

How does Outcome-First differ from traditional portfolio management?

Unlike traditional methods that often rely on past effort or sunk costs, Outcome-First evaluates initiatives based solely on current outcomes and future worth, promoting more disciplined stopping decisions.

Can Outcome-First be applied to all types of projects?

While designed to be provider-agnostic and flexible, its effectiveness depends on the ability to measure outcomes accurately. Slow-start or long-term projects may require careful outcome definition to avoid premature termination.

Is Outcome-First suitable for large organizations?

Yes, especially for organizations managing many initiatives, as it provides a systematic way to prune non-performing projects and reclaim capacity.

What are the risks of using Outcome-First?

The main risks include mismeasurement of outcomes, emotional bias in decision-making, and the potential to kill projects that are still in early or slow phases of development.

Will Outcome-First replace existing decision processes?

It is intended as a complementary tool to existing processes, providing a disciplined, outcome-focused review that can inform broader decision-making frameworks.

Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com